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Bingo · 04-06-2022, 12:41 PM

Didn't want to bury this in a pre game topic

Lots of discussion on depth scoring of late, and Enoch's comment about of course the second and third line is streaky if they weren't they'd be top lines, which I think was spot on.

But to add some numbers to it I thought I'd look at individual expected goals vs actual goals for the big four depth scorers by month this season vs the last 4 games.

Numbers five on five.

Backlund

Should have scored 11.6 goals to date and has 10.0.
March he should have had 2.1 and had 4.0
Last 4 games should have 0.5, has zero
Yearly average xG/Game 0.17, last 4 games 0.12

Things rolling on pretty consistently. Chance rates slightly off.

Coleman

Should have scored 15.3 goals to date and has 12.0.
March he should have had 2.3 and had 2.0
Last 4 games should have 0.7, has zero
Yearly average xG/Game 0.22, last 4 games 0.18

Things rolling on pretty consistently. Chance rates slightly off.

Mangiapane

Should have scored 13.9 goals to date and has 20
March he should have had 2.0 and had 2.0
Last 4 games should have 1.1, has zero
Yearly average xG/Game 0.20, last 4 games 0.26

Has always scored above his chance rate, has been a bit unlucky in the last four.

Toffoli

Should have scored 8.7 goals to date and has 5.0.
March he should have had 2.2 and had 1.0
Last 4 games should have 0.8, has zero
Yearly average xG/Game 0.14, last 4 games 0.20

Getting chances at a greater rate than he has. Hasn't scored of late.

Bottom line there really isn't much of a sag overall for chance generation. Backlund and Coleman are generating a bit less (not alarming), Mangiapane and Toffoli have actually had an uptick in the last four games but aren't getting rewarded.

Certainly suggests they are due, and it's not something to worry about beyond if you were worried before the last four games about depth scoring anyway.

04-06-2022, 12:41 PM	#1
Bingo Owner Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Calgary Exp:	Recent Depth Scoring Didn't want to bury this in a pre game topic Lots of discussion on depth scoring of late, and Enoch's comment about of course the second and third line is streaky if they weren't they'd be top lines, which I think was spot on. But to add some numbers to it I thought I'd look at individual expected goals vs actual goals for the big four depth scorers by month this season vs the last 4 games. Numbers five on five. Backlund Should have scored 11.6 goals to date and has 10.0. March he should have had 2.1 and had 4.0 Last 4 games should have 0.5, has zero Yearly average xG/Game 0.17, last 4 games 0.12 Things rolling on pretty consistently. Chance rates slightly off. Coleman Should have scored 15.3 goals to date and has 12.0. March he should have had 2.3 and had 2.0 Last 4 games should have 0.7, has zero Yearly average xG/Game 0.22, last 4 games 0.18 Things rolling on pretty consistently. Chance rates slightly off. Mangiapane Should have scored 13.9 goals to date and has 20 March he should have had 2.0 and had 2.0 Last 4 games should have 1.1, has zero Yearly average xG/Game 0.20, last 4 games 0.26 Has always scored above his chance rate, has been a bit unlucky in the last four. Toffoli Should have scored 8.7 goals to date and has 5.0. March he should have had 2.2 and had 1.0 Last 4 games should have 0.8, has zero Yearly average xG/Game 0.14, last 4 games 0.20 Getting chances at a greater rate than he has. Hasn't scored of late. Bottom line there really isn't much of a sag overall for chance generation. Backlund and Coleman are generating a bit less (not alarming), Mangiapane and Toffoli have actually had an uptick in the last four games but aren't getting rewarded. Certainly suggests they are due, and it's not something to worry about beyond if you were worried before the last four games about depth scoring anyway.