Quote:
Originally Posted by FlameOn
If Russians want to continue this war they will need more manpower because right now they are actually outnumbered in Ukraine. Russians sent in roughly 200K troops for this offensive but have lost 40K-50K at this point in casualties by most estimates. The Ukrainians have around 200K in regular forces, 100K in paramilitary forces, and 800-900K reservists in various states of readiness have only taken roughly 5K-7K losses. Combine this with their inability to gain air superiority, effectively use their armor, or supply their troops, and the Russians don't have the forces to guarantee a defense of the regions they've taken let alone go back on the offensive from a manpower standpoint.
I can't see a draft going well for Putin, a longer unpopular war will just further weaken his position. Especially with more conscripts "Putin won't use in Ukraine"
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The Russian conscription semi annual cycle is April 1st. So at that time a ton of conscripts who were reaching the end of their 1 year of service are usually allowed to leave. I would expect that the Russian military will put a hold on that because I think annual 100,000 or more conscripts reach the end of their cycle. But in a time of war Russia has the option to extend their period.
As well, they are usually bringing in the new conscripts on April 1st and the first 6 months is their basic training. It would be interesting to know how many draftees simply failed to show up, or had a "note from their doctor, priest etc". Also it would be interesting to note how many of the I think October inductees had their basic training cut short so they could be sent to the meat grinder.