Quote:
Originally Posted by Jay Random
No team has signed a contract with an AAV over $10 million since the start of COVID. The last of those contracts were signed in the summer of 2019.
GMs are willing to throw around that kind of money when they expect the cap to continue rising. When everyone knows the cap is going to be approximately flat for years to come, the calculations change.
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That's just because no one has been worth that sort of money.
Look at free agents in 2020 - Alex Pietrangelo was the best free agent, $8.8MAAV ($61.6M total).
Look at free agents in 2021 - Dougie Hamilton was the best free agent, $9M AAV ($63M total).
Look at free agents in 2019 - Artemi Panarin was the best free agent, $11.64M.
Johnny (and Tkachuk) are in the Panarin range - they're a tier above Pietrangelo/Hamilton.
The big deal with Panarin though was his age - he was under 28 when he hit free agency. That will have an impact on Johnny's number - he likely won't hit Panarin's rate, however - the cap has also gone up a smidge - so that may negate the age difference.
The point about pre/post-COVID doesn't track for me. It hasn't been what has shaped the market in my eyes - the talent available has done that.
Gaudreau is the best player since Panarin and before that Tavares to hit free agency. Those are your comparable contracts for Johnny. Tavares got $77M over 7 years, Panarin got $81.5M over 7 years. Johnny will get $80M easily in free agency (over 7 years), and our advantage comes in with that 8th year - perhaps lower the cap hit on an AAV basis but still deliver the $80M+ required to sign him.
8 years, with somewhere between $80M and $85M being the total value of the contract is how I see this coming together for Johnny. It also wouldn't surprise me to see Matthew Tkachuk sign a deal with a similar/identical AAV for a shorter period of time so that he gets back to free agency for 28 years old.