Costa Rica would have to win today away to El Salvador. They would then have to beat the USA in the final match. They'd have to make up an eleven difference over Canada, meaning if Canada were to lose their final two matches and Costa Rica were to win theirs, Costa Rica would still almost certainly not have enough goals to beat us on the goal differential tiebreaker.
They've also only scored nine so far to Canada's nineteen, so even catching up on total goal differential would mean Canada would own the tiebreaker on goals scored. It is almost statistically impossible for Canada not to qualify.
In addition to all of this, Costa Rica beating the USA would mean that the USA would need to beat Panama by five goals today to beat us on the tiebreaker. There's simply no way Canada doesn't qualify today, even with a heavy loss.
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