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Originally Posted by PeteMoss
The escalate to descalate might work if they were fighting Nato. But they are fighting Ukraine who I don't suspect are going to give up the fight (even if it just becomes an insurgency).
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I think in Putins mind using a couple 0.5Kt tactical nukes might be his only way out at this point. He would understand it to be a big gamble but he's pretty much all-in now. His army is being annihilated and air force slowly but steadily taken out. This cannot go on much longer before the operation quickly collapses and he knows what that would mean for him personally.
1 or 2 small nuclear strikes by Russia on military targets and Ukraine may ask for a cease fire, negotiations to end the war and some face saving. Or Biden may respond in kind with a similar strike but only on or near Russian positions inside Ukraine, not a chance he would hit Russian territory. Probably using a B61 ground burst with its yield dialed down to its minimum, delivered by an F-22. Still a tough decision for Biden to make at that point, to use nukes on or near soldiers of a peer nuclear power.
Putin may also go in a slightly different and safer direction to hopefully achieve the same results as an escalate to de escalate attack. This would look like a nuclear test or 2 then see what happens.