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Old 03-15-2022, 03:08 PM   #10012
Ashes
Scoring Winger
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18 View Post
Interesting the one thing that Ruzicka has driven better than Monahan is on-ice finishing.

Let's look at both Ruzicka and Monahan when not playing with Lewis (Proxy for playing with better wingers).

Ruzicka without Lewis:
TOI: 75 Minutes
xGF%: 52.8%
HDCF%: 45.5%
GF%: 100% (5 - 0)
Shooting Percentage: 10.9%
Save Percentage: 1.000

Monahan without Lewis:
TOI: 496 Minutes
xGF%: 54.4%
HDCF%: 58.0%
GF%: 41.6% (15 - 21)
Shooting Percentage: 5.21%
Save Percentage: .915

So Monahan has actually been generating high quality chances and high xGF when playing off the 4th line, issue is they have had some of the worst finishing luck in the league this year.

IMO Dube and Monahan shouldn't be separated.

Dube+Monahan
TOI: 291 Minutes
xGF%: 59.6%
HDCF%: 65.3%
GF: 38.1% (8 - 13)
Shooting Percentage: 4.73%
On Ice Save Percentage: .908

Just horrendus horrendus luck. Even if their on-ice shooting percentage was 8.3% (which is league average for 5v5 this year) that would mean they would have scored 14 goals at 5v5 instead of 8, and would be green on the ledger together.

Honestly I'd keep Dube and Monahan together, and just hope that those percentages start to revert back to the mean come playoff time.

Thanks for pulling up the stats, it's a pretty interesting comparison between Ruzicka and Monahan this season. I still have a better feeling about Ruzicka staying where he is for the time being, at least until other moves are made.

I think the other big questions which may determine Tre's deadline plans are:

- Going into the playoffs, would Sutter would trust Ruzicka (as a rookie) with being the Center on our secondary scoring line with Mangi/Toffoli? Or do they look to bring in more experience for that line, and move Ruzicka down with Lucic/Dube.

- Can we expect the Bennett-Playoff-Effect (BPE) with Dube.. this team could really use an unexpected contributor like that, but he's been so snakebit this season, it's tough to imagine he suddenly flips that switch. But hey, Bennett made a habit out of it.
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