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Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
I'll be the first one to say I under estimated Russian capabilities. I mean we know that there's always been a training issues with Russian Conscripts, and by the time they're pretty much halfway competant they're on their way out of the army.
But in terms of the technical side, and especially in the air the Russian Military's technology edge should have made a huge difference. But it doesn't seem to have.
From a perspective of the Ukrainian resistance to the attack, yes it does represent a massive failure on the part of the Russian military combined with the Ukraines being highly motivated. However the coloration of forces still vastly favors the Russians. They have more of everything, troops tanks planes, artillery and everything. The longer this goes on the more worn out the Ukraines are going to get and they don't likely have reserves so they can rest men and maintain equipment.
With the Western powers not getting involved beyond shipping in munitions, eventually this war will tip in the Russian's favor. Its just math. Russia can win a high tech war of attrition as long as Putin and the Russian military are willing to trade those casualties and blood for time.
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That's a pointless victory though. Sure they can win that way, but then they just end up with Afghanistan 2.0 where they have to stay there forever because the minute they leave, their appointed government gets overthrown and the area goes into chaos.
The US could deal with an Afghanistan because they have more money to spend then anyone knows what to do with. Russia isn't in that position after all these sanctions and half the world trying to cut away from their energy. Much easier to sell an endless war when your country is rich and quite frankly no one really cares about the war. Much more difficult when your country's economy goes into a depression. Add in that the population knows about Ukraine and isn't some faceless enemy like the Taliban that you can sell as terrorists.