Quote:
Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction
In theory, this works but I wonder how many ethnic Ukrainians left that area and wouldn't be able to vote.
These referendums after wars are sometimes used as a tool to reward ethnic cleansing by disguising it as democracy after the fact.
The region also hasn't had a census in a long time and has open borders with Russia. They could easily load the demographics to get the result that they want.
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I think you'd want eligibility to be restricted to people who were there before the invasion (including those displaced), and independence or join Russia would still win all three. But the West gets to tell Ukraine it's just respecting peoples' rights to self-determination. Ukraine gets to say it liberated Crimea and gave them self-determination. Russia gets to claim the same with regards to Donetsk and Luhansk. It's not about retaining territory for Ukraine, it's about ending the war and giving all parties a way to save face. There's certainly a degree of realpolitik in holding referendums where the outcomes are predictable, but that's part of why you might be able to convince Russia to go for it.