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Originally Posted by pseudoreality
This would be a huge win for Russia. Aside from reparations, whatever they might be, Russia gets everything they want and Ukraine loses big time. Ukraine loses territory and security. What is to stop Russia from invading again? The only thing that would give Ukraine security would be to join NATO and I don't see that happening.
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I don't think there is ever a guarantee that Russia would never invade again. They learned the game of nuclear blackmail. Some level of security would be achieved by having an enforceable de-militarized zone so that Russia could not stage their army close to Ukraine's border without being in violation. Before the war, Russia wasn't doing anything technically wrong. Countries are free to move their military and put them wherever they want within their own borders. With a de-militarized zone, the moment Russia breaches the agreement, the UN would be well within its right to immediately re-impose crippling sanctions.
I just think Donetsk and Luhansk are probably lost causes at this point. They have been at war there for 8 years and will always be a point of contention if they stay within Ukraine. I would rather see Russia not gain territory so maybe the best thing to do would make them buffer zone.
Russia might not be doing as well as predicted, but they are still gaining territory everyday. At some point, they are going to become so invested in the war that they are probably going to keep a lot of what they occupy either permanently or as further bargaining chips in future negotiations.