A lot of supposed expert analysis hasn't really been that great at predicting this conflict.
Not the worst I've seen, but a lot of it hasn't been significantly more accurate than many of the informed layman analysis frankly.
There's just so many unknown variables. Are the Belarussians going to join in or are they not? Is China going to step in, and if so in what way? What's going to happen in Syria if Russian military resources are depleted? Is some separatist group within Russia going to try take advantage of the situation?
How are Russians going to react to the economic crisis? Is it true that there are already tens of thousands of foreign military volunteers in Ukraine, and how well are they equipped and organized? How is the military aid working for Ukraine? Coming in fast and plentiful or slow and disorganized?
How will the world react when the inevitable happens and Ukrainian far-right militias are caught doing war-crimes. Etc.
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