Quote:
Originally Posted by dino7c
I worry that Mangiapane wants to be paid like a 40 goal scorer, gets it, and never scores anywhere near 40 again.
Didn't he have like 20 in the first month
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I wonder how many one hit wonders there actually are? You can't count on many guys to consistently score 40+, but most guys who score 40 once tend to have multiple 30+ goal seasons.
The exceptions I've found (*<70 gp):
W Karlsson - 9 6 43 24 15* 14*
Cheechoo - 28 56 37 23* 12*
Kesler - 21 26 25 41 22 4* 25 20 21 22
Gionta - 12*, 21, then 48 coming out of the lockout...25* 22 20 28* 29
Bertuzzi - 25 36 46 17***...25 coming out of the lockout then <20
Boyes - 26 17 43 33 14 17 8 10 21 14
Hall's career high is 39 and hasn't broke 20 since; previous best were 27 in 61 and 27 in 75.
Scott Gomez had 19 in his rookie year but never exceeded 16 except for a 33g year at age 26 coming out of the lockout (still a reliable ~60+ pt guy for the first 10 years of his career though).
I think there may be a few others whose career high was exactly 40 who were never very close again: Jason Blake, Anders Lee.
Barring major injury or Bertuzzi-event, I think Mangi has set a pretty safe floor as a min. 25g-45p guy, compared to a W Karlsson who came out of nowhere.
I think Gionta might be the best comparable - anomalous 48 goal season after 37g in his first 166gp (Mangi had 43 in his first 178 before this season). Gionta potted 124 over the next 5 seasons; twice missing ~20 games in a season (33 and 38 goal pace those years)
Obviously you'd hope it's consistently higher, but it's not the end of the world to pay a guy ~$6.5M for ~25g/45
Quote:
Originally Posted by CliffFletcher
I like Mangiapane at $6.5 mil more than Tkachuk at $10 mil.
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Exactly this. For me, it's Mangi + 1 of JG/MT for ~$16M vs. JG+MT at ~$20M.
I don't think $20M on two wingers is a good idea unless at least one of them is like Ovi/Kane or a complete player like Stone.