[the_only_turek_fan]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

As much as we like to think that things like this are going to happen, its more hollywood then anything else and not likely to happen.

Putin isn't getting assassinated, and he's ruthless enough about the supression of his own people and seems to have strong control on the his internal security apparatus.

I'm fairly certain that if his inner circle rises up a lot of them will be found face down in a bowl of soup. I expect while there are some elements in the FSB that might have thoughts of rebellion, but I also think that Putin has very strong control over the majority.

Frankly and to be honest, Ukraine and the international community are going to have to cede quite a bit to get Russia to leave. A normalization time line on a reduction of the sanctions, the Crimea staying in Russian control and the Eastern part of Ukraine relabeled as independent states. As well, yeah a guarantee that Ukraine doesn't join NATO or the EU. (Though that one could be broken with time).

The next step for Russia is pressure. While its great that the international community is supplying arms. Its the men's side of the equation that can't be replaced easily, and Ukraine's resistance has to be taking casualties and those can't be replaced.

With the call for Russian made planes, I expect that the Ukrainian airforce is either at the breaking point or broken at this point. And while small arms and anti tank rounds for example are probably easy to get in. Its a different story for things like fuel, and advanced air to air weapons and spare parts for equipment.

Putin will dig in, he'll try to up the blood shed and his propaganda effort and even with the Ukrainian resistance fighting really hard and well, the longer this goes the more the forces balance shifts to the Russian side.

As well, Putin probably won't try to take the capital, he'll just keep pounding it, he might not even try to take cities anymore, he'll just level them.. He doesn't seem to care about public opinion.

With NATO not agreeing to a no fly zone, or infusion of troops, Putin knows that he can push now for an agreement on his terms.

But I doubt we see an over throw, and what's behind him is worse.

Also we have to look at the fact that Russia has 5500 nuclear warheads. So if Russia is broken, or region cede or whatever, we have a uncontrollable rogue state with the ability to level the planet.


If this war goes another month or two months, at some point Ukraine ceases to exist as a viable nation.

So what? Putin wins then?