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Old 03-07-2022, 10:55 AM   #3227
blankall
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Originally Posted by calculoso View Post
If they add “Russia and Russian allied countries will not attack Ukraine for 100 years” then maybe there is a starting point for negotiations. If not, what is to prevent Russia from taking a break, re-supplying, and giving it another go?
In the East of Ukraine, there already were pro-Russian de-facto separatist governments that were already ruling parts of Eastern Ukraine. These eastern provinces are about 40% ethnically Russian and almost entirely Russian speaking. Russia invading those provinces was always going to be a cake walk. There was clearly a hard line between those provinces and the West of Ukraine, and Russia can't simply walk through other provinces. Russia can't re-arm and invade further without entrenching themselves in another not-so easily winnable war.

The main issue with Russia's "proposal" is the wording and the humiliating groveling of the Ukrainian government it requires. That will likely change before a ceasefire. But at the end of the day, the bones of the proposal are basically a return to the way things were exactly before the war started.
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