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Originally Posted by curves2000
I am wondering about the geopolitical side effects if Russia starts carpet bombing cities into oblivion in order to achieve what they want. Although over 1 million people have already left Ukraine for other nations, mostly Poland, that is a drop in the bucket to what may await other European countries.
This may not be a popular opinion, but this will really test the resolve of European countries, especially the the richer and more powerful ones.
Past global conflicts that have had huge refugee movements really didn't have the same effect on them. If we look at the Syrian civil war, a lot of them made the trip to Turkey and tried the extremely dangerous and often deadly trip to Greece.
For a very very long time countries like Greece and Italy were at the frontline's of the refugee crisis in the EU and with virtually little to no financial support or assistance. It's when the refugee's started making their way north to reach richer states like France and Germany did this become a bigger political issue for European leaders. Greece and Italy were in a financial crisis at the time.
Long story short although the EU has made some changes to allow Ukrainian's the ability to reside for a period of 3 years during this conflict, I don't know if anybody would expect 5-10, 15 million people to leave and show up in Germany, France, Italy, Poland without it causing tension locally and politically.
I am not saying European's aren't tolerant people, they are, to an extent. For a long time the problems were further away and hidden in countries like Turkey, Afghanistan, Syria and than when they did come to Europe, it was Greece and Italy. Eventually small pockets of refugee's made their way to other nations but this Russia/Ukrainian crisis is a different animal and literally next door to the most powerful countries in the world.
I am not suggesting Ukrainian's shouldn't flee or shouldn't go to Europe or anything like that. I just keep hearing from leaders that they don't want to get involved so it doesn't escalate the conflict with Russia. The EU/ NATO, UN or whatever other organizations are just organizations of countries. These countries will need to get significantly more involved and they will also face political pressure one way or another.
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This reminds me of something I had been thinking about during the Syrian refugee crisis when they arrived in Turkey.
Much was made of the actions of the Turks in terms of how those refugees were treated, describing brutal conditions, lack of facilities, food etc.
And while much of this was true at the same time I thought we have to consider the scale.
Turkey was staring down at what? 3 million people?
Thats akin to staring at an invading army.
Nobody has the logistical capacity to deal with an immediate influx of that many people right at their borders.
People could slag the Turks but what was expected of them was impossible.
I think this is similar to what we may see here. Poland cant handle that many people and the rest of the region isnt exactly what you'd call 'stable.'