Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuzz
https://twitter.com/user/status/1499396477331795988
If the negitiatiosn are pointless, and Russia won't stop until Ukraine is utterly defeated, what real options exist? The west is forced to join in, and provoke nuclear war, or Ukraine is left to fall completely...and other outcomes here?
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If I had to make a prediction, I’d say Russian forces occupy Ukraine east of the Dnieper River, as well as the Black Sea Coast, and isolate and besiege Kiev and Kharkov through the summer. Things settle into a stalemate, with increasing calls for intervention by the West, while opposition to the war in Russia puts pressure on the regime. By the fall, either some kind of ceasefire and negotiations that drag on for years, or Putin is toppled.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fuzz
I'm not sure Ukraine has "weeks" left. Looking at the indiscriminate shelling, they are trashing everything. A humanitarian crisis isn't far off.
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I don’t mean to be callous, but Russia has barely even begun to bring out the big guns. When they unleash their airforce and heavy artillery, casualties will rise into the thousands. In Grozny, a city an eighth the size of Kiev, between 5,000 and 8,000 civilians were killed.
In the Donbas War in the eastern Ukraine, 14,000 people have died without any decisive resolution. These things can drag on for a long time.