Seeing how things are playing out tactically wise I can now see how things are coming together.
The south appears to be at or near Russian control, strong control to the east, the Russian forces are fighting and getting strong resistance from Ukrainian forces in the northern part. It's all moving south into the capital region.
Once that happens most likely in a day or two, I can than see the massive convoy to the east circling the capital with such force than the government is forced to give up control or go through street fighting like no other with an eventual loss of control.
Tactically speaking this started in 2014 with Crimea and Covid probably delayed it but we can now see what Putin was seeing.
Hopefully the sanctions, the pressure, the additional weapons from the west and the motivated Ukrainian forces and people can push or keep this as a viable country in some capacity but realistically it may end up like these other places who are ruined.
Tragic, predictable looking at it now and enraging.
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