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Old 03-01-2022, 01:30 AM   #2154
afc wimbledon
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I'm going to be a bit positive here, Putin has screwed himself and at this point he knows it, I think he and his Generals realise leveling Kyiv ala Grozny would cause a massive backlash both in Russia and in the army itself, it's the historic birthplace of the Russian nation and there's a reason they had to lie to the troops to get them to invade, they equally know there's a limit to what they can ask the troops to do to people the troops themselves see as fellow Russians and they are at constant risk of a mutiny breaking out at some level.

Added to this Russia is getting poorer and more isolated by the day, the army is taking unacceptable casualties for what is essentially a war by deception on both its troops and civilian population, a civilian population who are about to feel the full effects of a fiscal and economic displacement that comes on top of Covid.

I suspect Putin knows that the risk of being overthrown as a result of the war grinding on will very quickly become greater than the risk of backing down, he's got a week or two at most to try and find some face saving way out of this but I have no doubt that is what he is looking for right now
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