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Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch
What if China didn't calculate this right. What if they were hoping that the Western Powers jumped completely to the defense of Ukraine and ignored Putin's nuclear threat. The American's rush their rapid response forces to the Ukraine. The American's are forced to form fleets to escort merchants over out of fear of Russian subs and naval aviation.
Like I said before the American military is still incredibly formidable but not near to what it was at the height of the Cold War, and certainly can't fight a war on two fronts.
so the Chinese sit and wait for America to get ensnared with troops and ships. then they make their move, again not on Taiwan but on the Spratleys.
though this fun/not fun theory does fail on the fact that the American Pacific fleet is still huge, so unless they move ships over to the Atlantic fleet it falls apart.
Also in terms of just pure killing power the Chinese would have to deal with the US 7th fleet.
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Always fun to play the what if game.
The scenario I've been pondering, is the FSB have tired of the direction Putin is taking the country, and they encouraged him to give Ukraine a punt. If it works out great...if not, they get to pick who the next stooge is.
Putin has a Henry the VIII problem, as he's got no male heir. There's no clear #2 in Russia, because that's inviting a coup. He fails in Ukraine and he's on an island all by himself. It'll start by the military refusing orders, and it ends with Putin in exile (or more likely dead). After a disorganized revolution the new leader of Russia will seek a restart with the West. In the shambles of Putin's Russia, Lukashenko is quartered by his own people and the first democratic elections are held in Belarus.
In October Xi is quietly exited at the National Committee due to "age restrictions", with the new leader promising an open dialogue with the west, and historic resolutions to fight climate change (and air quality at home).
Zelenskyy wins Time person of the year.