Quote:
Originally Posted by Itse
IF the Russians are really losing troops and equipment at the pace reported and their support lines are as weak as some reports, and the morale is as low as reported, things could genuinely be extremely bleak for the Russian side.
I mean, if those 1000+ men lost per day numbers are close to the reality, no army can sustain that for any length of time.
Things that are least SOMEWHAT true:
- poor morale, units are reported to be essentially hiding from the war
- troops are scattered over a large area and moving rapidly in smaller units to be faster
- air support is unreliable
- units are running around seeming somewhat lost and seem to have only vague idea of what they're supposed to be doing
- they are fighting a motivated enemy with superior air and satellite reconnaissance (provided by the US) that knows the ground much better.
Much less reliable info, but plausible:
- support lines are stretched and troops entered the country with very little food or fuel
That's a lot of IF's, but in any case, it's not really that Ukraine is outperforming expectations, it's that the Russians seem to be massively underperforming.
IF that's really an accurate picture of the Russian troops in Ukraine, it's basically a perfect scenario for units getting isolated and more or less wiped out without the support a superior force should be enjoying at all times. A situation like that could really mean extremely lopsided military casualties, which combined with poor morale could trigger mass surrenders or revolts within the Russian troops.
So I would say a Russian loss is actually on the table, although it would take the co-operation of unmotivated Russian troops.
Of course we have no idea what shape the Ukrainian army is in currently. Neither side has an incentive to talk about the losses Ukrainians are taking, since the Russians are still claiming to their own public that "this is just a little skirmish that will quickly be over".
If, if, if, obviously.
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Naturally we're not hearing much about Ukrainian losses, but what we're seeing on the Russian side is in part just how devastating modern combat is. Since Russia still has arguably the upper hand in terms of equipment, technology, and air superiority (though not supremacy) I imagine the Ukrainian losses are also horrific even though war typically favours the defenders and the Russian forces clearly have issues. It could be a high speed battle of attrition which is why the EU and NATO are rushing in new arms.
Also, there are maps showing pending encirclement of tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops in the southeast - that could tip the scales in a big way. I'm afraid this is not the beginning of the end of the Russian offensive but just the end of the beginning.