Quote:
Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague
No, of course they're not winning. They're just outperforming expectations. A realistic view on Friday was that they wouldn't last the weekend. They're just trying to hold on, and every time they make it through the night is a victory, judged on that curve. If they'd lost in 24 hours, none of these sanctions or promises of support from other countries that are coming hourly would have happened in the way that they have. The longer they hold out, the more they make this hurt Russia, and the more they make it cost Russia.
But "winning", in the sense that they're going to somehow repel this invasion? Absolutely not. That's not even on the table.
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IF the Russians are really losing troops and equipment at the pace reported and their support lines are as weak as some reports, and the morale is as low as reported, things could genuinely be extremely bleak for the Russian side.
I mean, if those 1000+ men lost per day numbers are close to the reality, no army can sustain that for any length of time.
Things that are least SOMEWHAT true:
- poor morale, units are reported to be essentially hiding from the war
- troops are scattered over a large area and moving rapidly in smaller units to be faster
- air support is unreliable
- units are running around seeming somewhat lost and seem to have only vague idea of what they're supposed to be doing
- they are fighting a motivated enemy with superior air and satellite reconnaissance (provided by the US) that knows the ground much better.
Much less reliable info, but plausible:
- support lines are stretched and troops entered the country with very little food or fuel
That's a lot of IF's, but in any case, it's not really that Ukraine is outperforming expectations, it's that the Russians seem to be massively underperforming.
IF that's really an accurate picture of the Russian troops in Ukraine, it's basically a perfect scenario for units getting isolated and more or less wiped out without the support a superior force should be enjoying at all times. A situation like that could really mean extremely lopsided military casualties, which combined with poor morale could trigger mass surrenders or revolts within the Russian troops.
So I would say a Russian loss is actually on the table, although it would take the co-operation of unmotivated Russian troops.
Of course we have no idea what shape the Ukrainian army is in currently. Neither side has an incentive to talk about the losses Ukrainians are taking, since the Russians are still claiming to their own public that "this is just a little skirmish that will quickly be over".
If, if, if, obviously.