Russia has already lost. The conventional warfare isn't going according to plan for them.
If the Russians are victorious in the conventional phase of the conflict, that's just the beginning. Then the asymmetric warfare takes over.
Ukrainians will be like white Taliban. Ukraine will be a meat grinder for the Russian Army just like the Mujahideen were a meat grinder for the Soviets in Afghanistan.
The US and UK and Germany will have crates of Javelin and Stinger missiles "fall off" the backs of trucks at the Ukraine-Polish border. Thousands and thousands of anti-tank missiles will filter through the country and will be destroying Russian armor and supply chains for the entire duration of any occupation.
Even if Russia wins, they lose.
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