Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post

CaptainCrunch · 02-25-2022, 09:19 AM

I said this at the start, the Russian's are still using their playbook from the later part of WW2. They push everywhere and where they find trouble spots or weaknesses they bring in their reserves to crush it or pour past it.

Ukraine has fought really hard and inflicted casualties. But this is all about math at this point. The Ukrainian military will wear out, they don't have much in the way of reserves. They've been battered for 2 days. Even with Western resupply, it doesn't replace men, and that more then weapons effects moral. The Ukrainian Solidiers have to realize that their is no help coming, and they're about to see fresh Russian Troops and equipment.

Putin has to be emboldened, by the British Statement that they won't cross the line that Putin has set and won't commit troops, nor will America, nor will Germany or any other Nato member. Ukraine has to realize that they're alone, and its only a matter of time.

We can talk about an insurgency, and it will happen. But the Russian Military has a history and policy of brutal reprisals against civilians to deal with an insurgency. Add to that, Putin just won't care. I mean even the call for sanctions in the west was fractured. He knows that there won't be a no fly zone for example to protect civilians. He knows now that its going to be a matter of time until Ukraine's formal military resistance is no longer possible.

We have romantic thoughts of a coup or an assassination of Putin, but unless its his protective detail doing it (ie Indira Ghandi). That's not going to happen, he's well protected and the FSB is probably working overtime looking for disloyalty.

The Civilian protests won't get anywhere, this is Russia it has a history of brutally dealing with protests and uprisings.

I think the next step will be more sanctions, Putin really won't care. He's betting that he can take all of the Ukraine, and then go to a false diplomacy stage with the West and make some small concessions that he has no intentions of keeping.

All NATO can do is re-enforce its Eastern Flank, increase the size of troop deployments in places like Latvia and wait.

02-25-2022, 09:19 AM	#772
CaptainCrunch Norm! Join Date: Jun 2002 Exp:	I said this at the start, the Russian's are still using their playbook from the later part of WW2. They push everywhere and where they find trouble spots or weaknesses they bring in their reserves to crush it or pour past it. Ukraine has fought really hard and inflicted casualties. But this is all about math at this point. The Ukrainian military will wear out, they don't have much in the way of reserves. They've been battered for 2 days. Even with Western resupply, it doesn't replace men, and that more then weapons effects moral. The Ukrainian Solidiers have to realize that their is no help coming, and they're about to see fresh Russian Troops and equipment. Putin has to be emboldened, by the British Statement that they won't cross the line that Putin has set and won't commit troops, nor will America, nor will Germany or any other Nato member. Ukraine has to realize that they're alone, and its only a matter of time. We can talk about an insurgency, and it will happen. But the Russian Military has a history and policy of brutal reprisals against civilians to deal with an insurgency. Add to that, Putin just won't care. I mean even the call for sanctions in the west was fractured. He knows that there won't be a no fly zone for example to protect civilians. He knows now that its going to be a matter of time until Ukraine's formal military resistance is no longer possible. We have romantic thoughts of a coup or an assassination of Putin, but unless its his protective detail doing it (ie Indira Ghandi). That's not going to happen, he's well protected and the FSB is probably working overtime looking for disloyalty. The Civilian protests won't get anywhere, this is Russia it has a history of brutally dealing with protests and uprisings. I think the next step will be more sanctions, Putin really won't care. He's betting that he can take all of the Ukraine, and then go to a false diplomacy stage with the West and make some small concessions that he has no intentions of keeping. All NATO can do is re-enforce its Eastern Flank, increase the size of troop deployments in places like Latvia and wait. __________________ My name is Ozymandias, King of Kings; Look on my Works, ye Mighty, and despair!