Looking at what's happening today, it's my opinion the following events may happen:
1. Russia will take Ukraine in a first phase, probably by the early March at the latest, but certainly longer than Putin expected.
2. Russia will install a pro-Kremlin government, likely with a puppet admin that has been agreed upon for months now. Civil unrest will happen for a while.
3. The insurgency will begin to organize, and NATO will support this insurgency with special forces training, weapons, forward reconnaissance, etc. This will take place over the coming weeks and months, and galvanize European powers to fight a proxy war through this insurgency.
4. Russia is going to continually have to deal with insurgent forces that will take a much larger toll on the Russian resolve in Ukraine than they anticipated. There's going to be a lot of Russian body bags being sent home when the insurgency begins.
They may also find Volodymyr Zelenskyy and execute him, although that will prove to more difficult than they thought.
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