Quote:
Originally Posted by CliffFletcher
This will be a short and limited war. Analysts say it could take up to 700k troops to fully occupy and pacify a hostile Ukraine. And Putin isn’t as secure at home as we might think - if polls are to be believed only 32 per cent of Russians trust him, and the biggest fear of tyrants is always a domestic revolt.
Short-term objective (weeks): The destruction of conventional Ukraine forces and occupation of Eastern Ukraine territory.
Mid-term objective (months): Firm control of the Black Sea corridor connecting Russia to the Crimea, and the establishment of a client regime in the territory. This achieves the strategic objectives of 1) connecting the Crimea to Russia by land, and 2) creating a buffer between Ukraine / the West and Russia’s vital resources in the Caucasus.
Long-term objective (years): Establish client provinces within Ukraine and then force a new constitution on the country giving those provinces a veto on key decisions like joining NATO.
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This is a good take.
A lot of the international opposition to this is just loud talking. Nobody is going to step in to save Ukraine...especially not militarily. I mean, Biden basically said they were going to stand back and watch.
This is a region conflict, and international efforts should be put towards ensuring it stays a regional conflict.