Thread: [Game Takes] Flames 5 Panthers 1
View Single Post
Old 01-20-2022, 10:56 AM   #19
SuperMatt18
Franchise Player
 
SuperMatt18's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
Exp:
Default

The eye test wouldn't have normalized for 5v5 vs all situations.

When you add all situations it was much closer first period. (Also the % can be misleading in small samples...3 HDCF vs 4 HDCF and it's 42.9% HDCF)

Corsi: 18 vs 20
Shots: 10 vs 11
HDCF: 3 vs 4
xGF: 0.93 vs 1.17
GF: 2 vs 0

So when you look at all situations Florida had the slight edge in Corsi, Shots, High Danger, and xGF...but it was really close and 1-2 shot/chance difference in all categories. Plus when the team is also winning 2-0 that's going to overcome those slight differences when looking at how the period went as a whole.

And I think this is a big gap in eye test vs. 5v5 advanced stats sometimes. Sometimes I'll watch a game an go "Man the Flames got outplayed that period" then check Natural Stat Trick and they have 60% 5v5 Corsi / xGF. But then you look back and they spent 5 minutes on the PK and gave up a PP goal, which makes it all make more sense.

Last edited by SuperMatt18; 01-20-2022 at 11:04 AM.
SuperMatt18 is online now   Reply With Quote