Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
It's not about the time of the trade to be honest. I know what you're talking about because I made a similar post looking at Bennett's iXG and chance numbers that off-season. I think we were in agreement that Bennett was generating a lot of individual scoring chances at that time and deserved more of a shot in our top 6.
Bennett led the Flames in individual expected goals per 60 in 17-18, and individual high danger chances. While dragging Brouwer/Janko around the ice.
But Bennett wasn't the guy he was in 17-18 in 20-21.
For me it's comparing Lindholms last three seasons before the trade from Carolina to Bennett's last three seasons in Calgary.
Lindholm:
15-16 to 17-18
GP: 235
TOI: 13:32
xGF%: 52.3%
Goals : 22 (0.09)
Points: 74 (0.31)
Individual xG per 60: 0.65
On ice shooting percentage: 6.48%
Individual shooting percentage: 6.13%
Bennett:
18-19 to 20-21
GP: 161
TOI: 11:27
xGF%: 51.9%
Goals : 21 (0.13)
Points: 44 (0.27)
Individual xG per 60: 0.79
On ice shooting percentage: 7.18%
Individual shooting percentage: 9.13%
At 5v5 Bennett has always been great at generating scoring chances, but Lindholm was probably the better overall player in terms of defensive impacts and points.
Overall though I think the point stands that at the time of trades they are the closest comparables I can think of.
Both guys were limited by poor on-ice and individual shooting percentages. And both guys took off once they got placed on a line with some chemistry that allowed those percentages to correct.
Lindholm had the better counting numbers (that could have all been opportunity) but Bennett was also coming off a very poor 19-20 regular season where he just wasn't himself and based on some models was one of the Flames worst regular forwards that season. (GSVA had him a -0.1 impact that season)..
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That bolded is an understatement even before looking at the two minutes of less ice time crossed with 74 fewer games while comparing counting stat totals (seriously..?)
First of all Lindholm's "production" in Carolina was largely secondary assists. Bennett's lack of production over that period was largely... a lack of secondary assists. Secondary assists are a stat full of noise.
Second, while on-ice SH% is an important stat, it includes individual SH% as part of its makeup. The numbers you posted show Bennett's iSH% was skewing his oiSH% upwards whereas Lindholm's iSH% was skewing his oiSH% downwards. See the issue?
As a Hurricane, Lindholm largely played on lines centered by Jordan Staal, and the left winger was typically Jeff Skinner or Sebastian Aho, with the occasional helping of Teuvo Teravainen. You are basically comparing Staal versus Jankowski. And Sebastian Aho, a guy who has developed into a top five NHL centre... to the likes of Tobias Rieder, Joakim Nordstrom, and the corpse of James Neal.
And Lindholm was never asked to play left wing, whereas Bennett's only top six stints came on his off wing.
Finally, Geoff Ward's systems were a disaster for the entire Flames team. Lindholm in Carolina played for a possession coach in Bill Peters. Geoff Ward was.. not a possession coach.
As for the other claims (defensive play") there's a lot of problematic claims being throw around, and zone starts are being referenced. I see nothing to actually support this assertion, considering a lot of context is missing. Both are strong defensive centres in my eye. Bennett's defensive numbers have only ever looked poor when playing on an inferior centre's wing.
While Lindholm blew up on Calgary, he went from good opportunity to great opportunity.
Bennett went from no opportunity to great opportunity*
*Although since Huberdeau and Barkov shoot left, he still doesn't have a PP1 role. Lindholm being a right shot cemented him an opportunity on PP1 that only he has.