Quote:
Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis
I feel like the Bills -4 is more egregious for a line, the Bills dominated that second game and only lost the first one because of wind and one long Patriots TD. Feels like that should be Bills -7.
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That one has moved to 4.5 at Bet 365, and the Sagarin on it was 4.74.
My original lean here was to the Bills too. But I have heard arguments for both sides. I think it's as simple as this, the Patriots are still a pretty public team and if the line was set at 7, than too many people would bet the Patriots, or start using Teasers with Bills that would bring on too much risk. So by setting the line at 4 or 4.5, it makes the teasers bad value, and brings in a bit more Bills money. Right now the money looks to be close to 50-50 which is exactly what the books want.
If anything I like the Under in that game since it's the third meeting in like 7 weeks between these teams. It's going to be very cold, they're both coached well, and they know each other extremely well. I could see this one playing out as a 20-14 type of game.