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Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald
Interesting, but a bit of a red herring. I counter your WAP with the SAP. If science believed in the WAP, they would not continue the search for worlds beyond our own and the intelligences they believe exist.
Intelligent life in whose context? There very well may be civilizations in the universe that do not consider us an intelligent life form, and for very good reason, very much the same way we don't consider many of the other life forms we share this planet with as intelligent. So whose context are we measuring things?
Estimates are that in our galaxy there are 100,000,000,000 star systems. It is also estimated that in the visible universe there are 2,000,000,000,000 galaxies. So you're suggesting none of the 200,000,000,000,000,000,000,000+ stars in the universe yield life or intelligent life? And that multiple intelligent civilizations would not exist at the same time? Doesn't earth's own history, and the development of parallel civilizations, already destroy that premise?
Again, almost everything brought up is based on our privative understanding of the universe. Much of what we know has only developed in the past couple hundred years, with the vast majority of the major discoveries coming in the past century. What if we don't fully understand the fabric of space and time near as well as we like to think we do? How would we compare to a civilization that has maybe a few hundred thousand years in development and advancements on us? This is something hard for us to comprehend because we look at all of these things through our very primitive perspective and have the arrogance to believe that development of any lifeform is going to be driven by the same factors as our species. So our expectation of them destroying themselves is only based on our behaviors and trajectory, which we mistakenly apply to all others, or potential others. That's a failing that we must first get past to really think long and hard on this topic.
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Go play with the Drake Equation. Find sets of variables that allow for more than one intelligent species in temporal space/time contact which don’t suggest millions of species.
I am suggesting the following
1) There is no requirement that intelligent life or life of any kind exist outside of earth because life exists here
2) It’s difficult to create scenarios where life exists and FLT exists and Aliens have visited us where their wouldn’t be abundant life in the universe that we could easily detect.
3) if there is life elsewhere in the universe but do to technology, time, space prevents their photons from reaching us then as far as the aliens visiting us here it’s meaningless. It’s important to our understanding of the universe but doesn’t really add evidence to Aliens having visited us.
Number one in any rational discussion of aliens is what is the speed limit of the universe because it sets the parameters of how many planets are relevant to the discussion.
On Earth we didn’t evolve independent intelligent species. We came from one evolutionary tree at one location on the planet and then spread out. So that would be the Star Trek scenario where aliens seeded life and not simultaneous evolutions.
Most of your posts on aliens is what could be. And I agree the Aliens could have visited here. It’s just exceedingly unlikely given the size of the universe and our current observed frequency of life.
This idea of 100,000 years of additional time to develop leading to advanced tech we don’t understand requires some weird assumptions.
They need to have developed such that all of the species that did develop have left no evidence in terms of radiation that reached us throughout their hundred thousand years of development. They need to be few enough of them that all of these species have been consistent in that approach. They need to be far enough away to avoid recreation but close enough to have found us. Unless the universe is filled with these technologically advanced super beings it’s unlikely they found us.
I do agree that somewhere in the History of Universe it is likely there has/dors/will exist another intelligent species. The likelihood of them visiting us is near zero.