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Old 01-06-2022, 12:45 PM   #47
Baron von Kriterium
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leondros View Post
KZ requested support via its membership in the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). Russia is also a member of CSTO. It's a collective Eurasian effort, not a Russian whim. Armenia, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Belarus will also send troops. A company from Russia's 76th Air Assault Division and a company from the 45th Spetznaz Brigade deployed, so we're not talking about large numbers of Russian troops right now.

Invoking the CSTO achieves the following:

1. it's a collective Eurasian effort;

2. it provides more legitimacy to foreign stabilization efforts; and

3. it reinforces the RUS position in KZ and central Asia.

There are potential pitfalls; however:

1. some will view the RUS efforts as an intervention;

2. angry Kazakhs may take their frustrations out on ethnic Russians living in KZ; and

3. RUS involving itself in KZ politics and taking the side of Tokayev (ie, saving another dictator).

Russia has to be careful that the Tokayev tail doesn't start wagging the RUS dog like Assad does in Syria. RUS can limit its support to Tokayev by limiting time and size of its response and restrict itself to guarding vital points (for example, the main airports and any of the four RUS military installations within KZ) and avoiding direct confrontation with protestors.
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