[CaptainCrunch]

While I agree that tensions are certainly higher then they've been at any other times in this century, and there are several tinder box issues such as the current energy crisis in Europe, collapsing economies around the world. I think for the most part we're talking about regional saber ratting more then actual steps to war.


If we look at the key factors of military strength, and the desire to fight actual wars I think its low. Russia while it has jumped forward in modern submarine technology and tanks and airplanes, they're still struggling with the professionalization of the Military. So I wanted to take a look at three tinder boxes above and maybe discuss them.

Russia has massed more then 100,000 troops on the border of Ukraine, and has support from Belarusian troops on Ukraine’s northern border. Will Russia invade again, and this time take way more territory then just Crimea and the Donbass? Will NATO get involved to back Ukraine if they do?

How hard will the World fight for the Ukraine. The Russians have the massive advantage of distant. its easier for them to re-enforce and move key supplies, its a simple matter of geograpy. Ukraine allies and especially the American's are at the far end of a relatively fragile logistics chain. While the Russians have many of their better units ready to go. Their more advance tanks and artillery and even aircraft. I believe that they would be at a technological disadvantage to Wetern Militaries. So it would come down to the use of Western Airpower more then troops on the ground. The Western powers would try to take the air and draw blood and the Russians know that. However the Russian navy has really worked to improve themselves. They've jumped their subs forward several generations. The Key to the Russians winning would be to close off the Atlantic, something that they would be capable of for a short period of time. In terms of sheer numbers the Russians are still a shell of what they were at the height of the Cold war. But I doubt that the West would seriously put a lot of troops on the ground in the Ukraine, also I doubt that the Russians would expand any kind of invasion, we won't see Russian T-99's rumbling through the Fulda Gap.

China has made it their policy to “reunite” with Taiwan. Many say an invasion could be launched in the weeks following the Winter Olympics. This would be a major conflict as the US and Japan have promised to support Taiwan if they do. China and India have also been massing troops on their shared border, and renewed conflict could break out at any time.

Again I can't see this happening, the reaction of the World would shatter China's economy. Basically the Chinese on paper have two aircraft carriers, the Lianing is more of a test bed carrier and not really a combat capable carrier. However the Shandong is a fairly advanced character but still badly outclassed by an American carrier. The PLAN is working on upgrading its submarine force and have several new generation subs in the planning or building phase. For the most part their current boats are second generation boats which are relatively noisy and slow. If the American's get involved, and its not to be arrogant, there's a good chance that the PLAN ceases to exist, they don't have the next gen technology or experience in Carrier operations and submarine operations that the Americans have. On top of that the Chinese don't have the amphibious capability to effectively invade Taiwan. They'd need to bombard the island and cause massive civilian casualties and the Chinese won't do that. Now, I do believe that China is becoming aggressive but they're resource hungry so the Spratley Islands would be a more logical target and I don't know if that would be a flashpoint for a larger war. Also China's economy is heavily dependent on exports and any kind of aggressive war action would be economically devastating if every country in the world boycotts their goods. However that could shift with the theoretical greening and electrification of cars for example as China has a huge stock of rare earth metals.

It is also looking more likely then ever that Israel will finally attack Iran to destroy its nuclear program, after talks between the US and Iran have broken down recently. An attack on Iran will certainly provoke a response across the Middle East, from direct Iranian retaliation, to using their proxies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.

I can't see this expanding beyond the usual airstrike, scrimmage, terrorist attack or also known as business as usual. I doubt too many Middle Eastern Nations would actually go to war for Iran and most would relish its destruction if war ever happened. I think most nations would be extremely hesitant in taking on Israel in a military versus military war. Israel is still an extremely advanced military and extremely well trained. Israel would literally own the air in any war and if you back that up with the theoretical Israeli nuclar arsenal Only a fricken maniac would go to open war, considering that the American's would quickly come to Israel's defense. So lets say that Israel does effectively bomb the Iranian nuclear program out of existence we're more then likely going to see a shadow war where Iran attacks through its proxies, and Isreal retaliates through its intelligence services. So business as usual. Now logically if you war game this out, the Russians could come to the rescue for Iran. They could give Iran more advanced aircraft and armor and even add advisors while the Russian Navy harasses and cause problems. But no I don't see a real war happening there.