Quote:
Originally Posted by GoFlamesGo89
I would guess that in the model there is more uncertainty in the draft year (having less information and many future paths), but as time goes on it becomes clear which path the player is taking. You'd need to know more about how variance and uncertainty is built into the models to be sure.
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My guess ... failure to take another step would reduce star potential, holding where you are and not going backwards would increase NHL potential.