Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
Does anyone one have any insight on why Kerins's NHLer probability went up, while his star probability slipped?
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I would guess that in the model there is more uncertainty in the draft year (having less information and many future paths), but as time goes on it becomes clear which path the player is taking. You'd need to know more about how variance and uncertainty is built into the models to be sure.