Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathgod
The player was on the ice, meaning the things he does on the ice during that time has an influence on the offensive opportunities that his team has during that time. Therefore there must be a positive coorelation between a player's xGF/60 and how well he's playing offensively.
Having good linemates certainly helps, and having bad linemates definitely hurts. However, the one certain constant of every single second that a player is on the ice, is the player himself. Therefore I think you're being too dismissive of the stat.
Is it the only offensive stat that a person should look at when evaluating a player? Heck no. Many different stats must be taken into account. But this particular one should not be dismissed outright.
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Yes, there is going to be a positive correlation established, once there is enough data.
But that's all we've got - a correlation. It provides nothing with respect to the individual player's participation in, or influence over, the data. So it is a correlation to the success of the team (or at least a subset of the team, being the line he is on, the opposition they face, and the game management opportunities they are given).