Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
No, it means that you have a good xGF/60. Period.
Everything else you said is your own projection.
The only thing the stat tells us is that a certain amount of offense has been generated, while that player was on the ice. The extent to which that player is involved or not involved, or whether they are driving or not driving the play, is completely unknown (and not material to the stat). How good, and effective, their line-mates were, is unknown. How good and effective at deterring offense the opposition players were, is completely unknown.
The only way to know what the xGF/60 numbers implies, for the player in question, is to watch them play, and see.
That's why (well, it's one reason) these stats are misused and misleading - they are largely team stats, and for a given player, they are impacted primarily by usage (line-mates, opportunity, and match-ups), and thus the numbers aren't as comparable between players, or as applicable to the individual, as people think they are.
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The player was on the ice, meaning the things he does on the ice during that time has an influence on the offensive opportunities that his team has during that time. Therefore there must be a positive coorelation between a player's xGF/60 and how well he's playing offensively.
Having good linemates certainly helps, and having bad linemates definitely hurts. However, the one certain constant of every single second that a player is on the ice, is the player himself. Therefore I think you're being too dismissive of the stat.
Is it the only offensive stat that a person should look at when evaluating a player? Heck no. Many different stats must be taken into account. But this particular one should not be dismissed outright.