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Originally Posted by GordonBlue
A player with Tkachuk's style generally doesn't age well. I think he'll want max salary on his next contact as it will be by far his biggest payday.
I would bet the farm on him not taking 6y/51m. not a Tkachuk.
I would also be shocked if Gaudreau signed for only 7.75. That to me is under market value for him, and someone would easily pay him a million more per year. So That's the number the flames would have to be at.
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I know I am in the minority here but I just don't see teams backing up the brinks truck for Johhny long term - I can only imagine that his size and lack of playoff success are still mitigating and concerning factors for teams. I certainly don't think a 62M dollar retirement contract that takes him to 37 years old is undervaluing him. This is a player who has comfortably been under a point a game the past two seasons - which does factor in to these negotiations. You can certainly make the argument that he is a 9m dollar player today, but it's not realistic to expect that he will live up to that AAV or level of production in years 5+.
Regardless - personally you would hope that a player is willing to take a "fair contract" for an organization that is willing to commit what would be 16 years and over a 100M dollars into them. Panarin was coming off back to back point a game+ seasons, signed prior to the pandemic, was 27 years old, and could only be offered a 7 year deal as a UFA. I still maintain that the Couturier and Landeskog contracts are more comparable given the past three years.
In terms of Tkachuk. I would tend to agree with you. I think that projection was on the optimistic side simply due to the difficulty that the Tkachuk's have shown in the past in contract negotiations. They certainly don't put the team first. I maintain that as the player he is today that 8.5M is more than fair for what he provides (if not an overpayment), but we all know what that family prioritizes, and you can't blame them for that. I think Tkachuk will age just fine. He is not a player that relies on his speed or skating ability. He is a pure skill player at heart and processes the game at a very high level.
If you need to go 500k-750k more on the AAV for each player that is something you obviously have to do but I think there should be some give and take from both sides.