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Old 11-04-2021, 03:04 PM   #841
GranteedEV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ComixZone View Post
Our great start is also on the backs of:

Lindholm shooting 29.2%
Mangiapane shooting 35%
Markstrom rolling a 1.56 and .947

Now, systematic play has been strong - but something tells me the numbers above aren't quite going to stand up over the course of the season.
The team has 5v5 xGF% of 55.06% and a GF% of 65.81% so maybe it'll still drop off closer to the expected number, but I think you're overstating the SH% side of things.

As Mangiapane's goals start become saves, there will be rebounds available for his linemates to cash in on. Though he's been shooting around 19% the last few seasons so it won't be a huge swing.

Likewise, Lindholm's goals will be replaced by more Gaudreau and Tkachuk goals.

Overall, the Flames are currently 19th in 5v5 SH%. I expect upwards regression where guys like Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Dube, Monahan, Backlund, Andersson, Hanifin start scoring more. For reference the 2018-21 Flames have been 8th in SH% over a 208 game sample.

The teamwide SH% boost should counter the likely reality that Markstrom's hot week was probably just that. As long as Markstrom can be average (i.e. not the clear worse goaltender in a game where he faces 20ish shots) I think we'll be fine.
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