I think that Connelly might actually be on to something. The Tkachuk-based trade just makes too much sense for both teams.
For Buffalo:
1. Taking on Tkachuk and Zadorov allows them to remain above the cap floor.
2. Tkachuk will be closer to home and will be more likely to re-sign a long-term deal. It's not necessarily about winning for the Tkachuks, it's about the money (see brother Brady) and about being the face of the franchise, which he would be in Buffalo, though not necessarily in Calgary. Buffalo instantly upgrades their on-ice team now and has someone they can immediately show to fans as what they got as a return in the trade. He is also in the age bracket Buffalo is targeting, unlike Monahan.
3. Zadorov has just one year and is then UFA. They have the option to re-sign him, or trade him for additional futures at the TDL. His name hasn't come up in previous rumours, and seems unlikely at first glance, which is partly why I am more likely to believe it, since he was specifically named and does meet the description of "former first round pick".
4. Buffalo gets Poirier and a future first round pick. Although this does not quite meet their demand for four first round picks, you could argue that Tkachuk himself has the value of nearly two first round picks.
For Calgary:
1. Assuming Eichel recovers enough from surgery to be able to play again, he instantly becomes the true first line centre the team hasn't had since before Iginla. He likely won't be the elite centre he was before the injury, but he will be a top 5-10 in the league, and for the Flames, that will be more than good enough.
2. With a true 1C, the Flames can move Lindholm back to their position of greatest weakness, RW. A line of Gaudreau-Eichel-Lindholm would be a two-way juggernaut of a first line that few teams could match up well against.
3. The Flames still have lots of quality LWs. Mangiapane looks great on the second line. At some point, when Monahan is up to game speed, he can move up to centre Mangiapane and Coleman. That would be one of the better second lines in the league, because both Mangiapane and Coleman have the ability to get the puck to Monahan when he finds the soft spot in the defensive zone, something that his current linemates lack the ability to do.
4. This pushes Backlund to the third line, between Lucic and Pitlick. That's a third line that can smother the opposition's top lines while still having some offensive upside. Dube, with his high-paced game, would be a much better fit on an aggressively forechecking fourth line than Monahan is. Now all of the forwards are properly slotted based on their style of play and abilities.
5. With Zadorov and Tkachuk gone, the cap works. This also makes it much clearer how much the team has available to re-sign Gaudreau (who might even sign for a discount to continue to play with Eichel - I suppose one can always dream).
6. Moving Tkachuk gets rid of what has been widely reported to be a rift between him and the rest of the team. When Sutter was hired, many speculated that Gaudreau would be negatively impacted, but I think that with his hot-dogging and at times selfish plays, Tkachuk is actually the player who fits most poorly with Sutter's no-nonsense approach.
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