Quote:
Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache
That has to be based on flawed statistics.
When pulling the goalie, you are essentially banking on maintaining possession or at least avoiding changes in possession that lead to scoring chances.
I had this discussion long ago with some folks investing in statistics
I do not believe that any modeling extrapolated appropriately to consider likelihood of avoiding such changes in possession
It’s a longer conversation but long story short, pulling the goalie with 6 minutes left is dumb
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Actually, they did take changes of possession into account. The thing is, it doesn't matter how many goals you lose by. If you're down one late, you gain a lot by scoring the next goal, and lose nothing by giving up the next goal. Based on the known historic probabilities of scoring an empty-netter vs. the known historic probabilities of scoring 6-on-5, it turns out that you maximize your chances of tying the score by pulling the goalie with about 6 minutes left.