Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - [Signing] Rangers sign Adam Fox to 7 year extension ($9.5 mil AAV)

Kovaz · 11-02-2021, 01:10 PM

I think the Fox vs. Makar debate gets at the heart of where some advanced stats fall short of truly capturing a player's value. When you sum up something like WAR, you're getting the average across all situations, for a whole season. Fox pretty clearly has higher hockey IQ, and Makar has clearly better physical tools. And it totally makes sense that, on average, making the right decision 99% of the time generates more value than making the right decision 90% of the time, with better skating and puck handling.

But the catch is that there are plays that Makar can make that Fox simply can't, no matter how smart he is. And in a high-stakes situation against an elite team, sometimes that's the only way to beat them. And when I'm building a team to win the Cup, I'm willing to accept some sloppy giveaways throughout the year for the ability to totally take over a playoff game, even though the former is worth more WAR when you sum it up.

I guarantee that, top-to-bottom, the 2018-19 Flames had more WAR on their roster than the 2018-19 Avs, but I know which team I'd rather be.

11-02-2021, 01:10 PM	#176
Kovaz Scoring Winger Join Date: Nov 2016 Exp:	I think the Fox vs. Makar debate gets at the heart of where some advanced stats fall short of truly capturing a player's value. When you sum up something like WAR, you're getting the average across all situations, for a whole season. Fox pretty clearly has higher hockey IQ, and Makar has clearly better physical tools. And it totally makes sense that, on average, making the right decision 99% of the time generates more value than making the right decision 90% of the time, with better skating and puck handling. But the catch is that there are plays that Makar can make that Fox simply can't, no matter how smart he is. And in a high-stakes situation against an elite team, sometimes that's the only way to beat them. And when I'm building a team to win the Cup, I'm willing to accept some sloppy giveaways throughout the year for the ability to totally take over a playoff game, even though the former is worth more WAR when you sum it up. I guarantee that, top-to-bottom, the 2018-19 Flames had more WAR on their roster than the 2018-19 Avs, but I know which team I'd rather be.