[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Small sample size, and I think Grubauer was like 28th for Goals saved above average in another post that I saw.

Advanced stats are supposed to be indicators of what can be expected for future results if the metrics being measured can be maintained. So if Seattle continued to play as they have, and started to get league average goaltending, the expectation is that their record would improve.

There are many on this board who are far more in tune with advanced stats than myself, but I would think once you get to 30 games played that you start to get a better idea of how teams are playing, and how statisticians would expect the final league standings to look. As is the case with anything statistics related, there will always be an outlier team with bad advanced stats that yields unexpected positive results in terms of wins and losses, and there will be a strong team that does the exact opposite.

Originally Posted by Kovaz

Usually when you see something like this, the first thing to check is goaltending. On Natural Stat Trick (http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?stdoi=g)

They've had 3 goalies play minutes:

Grubauer: -5.57 GSAA
Daccord: -1.12 GSAA
Driedger: -0.62 GSAA


Sum it up, and you get -7.31 GSAA. So for a team with a -5 goal differential, if your goalies have given up 7.3 more goals than expected, it's mostly due to them. With average goaltending, Seattle should be at a +2 goal differential, and IIRC every 3 goals is worth about 1 win, so their record should be closer to 5-3-1, which would put them in 8th place in the standings. Of course that all assumes that this is just a random cold streak for their goalies, and it's reasonable to expect Grubauer to bounce back and play better the rest of the way. It's entirely possible he keeps playing poorly, and it's also possible that they've got some defensive issues that are making the goalies look bad.


But that's the gist: they're getting 53% of the chances, but they have the 2nd-worst save percentage in the league.

Ok, this actually makes sense.