Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community - View Single Post - Adv stats power ranking: What's the deal with Seattle?

Kovaz · 11-01-2021, 10:20 AM

Usually when you see something like this, the first thing to check is goaltending. On Natural Stat Trick (http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?stdoi=g)

They've had 3 goalies play minutes:

Grubauer: -5.57 GSAA
Daccord: -1.12 GSAA
Driedger: -0.62 GSAA

Sum it up, and you get -7.31 GSAA. So for a team with a -5 goal differential, if your goalies have given up 7.3 more goals than expected, it's mostly due to them. With average goaltending, Seattle should be at a +2 goal differential, and IIRC every 3 goals is worth about 1 win, so their record should be closer to 5-3-1, which would put them in 8th place in the standings. Of course that all assumes that this is just a random cold streak for their goalies, and it's reasonable to expect Grubauer to bounce back and play better the rest of the way. It's entirely possible he keeps playing poorly, and it's also possible that they've got some defensive issues that are making the goalies look bad.

But that's the gist: they're getting 53% of the chances, but they have the 2nd-worst save percentage in the league.

11-01-2021, 10:20 AM	#8
Kovaz Scoring Winger Join Date: Nov 2016 Exp:	Usually when you see something like this, the first thing to check is goaltending. On Natural Stat Trick (http://naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?stdoi=g) They've had 3 goalies play minutes: Grubauer: -5.57 GSAA Daccord: -1.12 GSAA Driedger: -0.62 GSAA Sum it up, and you get -7.31 GSAA. So for a team with a -5 goal differential, if your goalies have given up 7.3 more goals than expected, it's mostly due to them. With average goaltending, Seattle should be at a +2 goal differential, and IIRC every 3 goals is worth about 1 win, so their record should be closer to 5-3-1, which would put them in 8th place in the standings. Of course that all assumes that this is just a random cold streak for their goalies, and it's reasonable to expect Grubauer to bounce back and play better the rest of the way. It's entirely possible he keeps playing poorly, and it's also possible that they've got some defensive issues that are making the goalies look bad. But that's the gist: they're getting 53% of the chances, but they have the 2nd-worst save percentage in the league.