Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
...So while I agree its a 50/50 coin flip, I think its more like "heads I win, tails I don't lose ."
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It almost seems like I have a horse in this race
. I honestly don't, just enjoying the peaceful discussion.
I would correct your latter statement: "heads I win, tails I don't lose
much." You will be losing for as long as you stay locked at a higher rate and remember to go back to market, which is a time-consuming nuisance and easily forgettable thing to do.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bizaro86
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If we have a super cold winter and gas goes to $8, locking in at $4 or less won't be an option anymore. But if we have a warm winter and the price goes down you can switch back to floating.
...
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This is where the assumption is false. Super cold winter results in an increased demand for natural gas, yes. But it doesn't automatically result the supply prices to increase, because natural gas producers may have the production capacities increased in anticipation of the cold weather and now they have to get rid of their produced gas at whatever pries the market movers can sell it for. This is precisely why natural gas market is so wildly unpredictable.