Quote:
Originally Posted by rubecube
This is terrible logic. You know that, right?
"The coaches disagree with the math. Hmmmm...it's the math that must be wrong!"
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Real games aren't Madden fellas. The data is based on a variety of different games and teams of varying strengths and weaknesses. Just because the computer says I have a 60% chance of making that play based on years of accumulated game data, doesn't mean it applies to any particular game. That data is useful but as always situationsal.
- maybe I'm starting two backup offensive linemen
- my starting QB is not elite and his accuracy has been off all day
- my clutch receiver has a nagging leg injury and isn't at full speed
- my short yardage back is out of the game
- my opponent is a top 5 NFL defense today that's been causing issues for my offensive line
- etc.
- etc.
Every single NFL game played has its own unique circumstances and you just can't say that gambling on 4th down is right because and aggregate of different games says it's the right play otherwise we could just replace coaches with computers and have them spit out recommended plays like Madden.
You can take the make percentage of every 45 yard FG ever made and come out with odds of say 65% but that doesn't mean in your particular game that it's a 65% make because it could be outdoors, windy, and cold. Same applies to going for it on 4th down.