Quote:
Originally Posted by Fan in Exile
Why don't you show me what you're relying on? One would expect corsi and SOG to correspond to wins but I can't find any analysis that bears that out. In fact, much of what I've reviewed indicates the opposite. For example:
https://medium.com/hockey-stats/are-...y-f8f8d16811bf |
One thing, it corresponds to regulation wins and ties, but 5v5 corsi won't have any correlation to 3v3 OT or shootout scores, which affect standings. However, since there is no 3v3 or shootout in the playoffs, it's more predictive of playoff wins, where overtime is 5v5.
Regardless of that, over an 82 game season, of the sixteen teams in the playoffs, most will be on the positive side of 50% corsi (and I've read somewhere, though I can't be bothered to find the source right now, that higher event teams are typically more successful if CF% is equal, so a higher CF is more important than maintaining a lower CA).
There might be a team that rode inflated 5v5 SH% to the playoffs (like our lovely 2015 Flames), there might be a team that rode pure goaltending to the playoffs, and there might be a team that rode ridiculous special teams to the playoffs (like the McDrai Oilers), but they're the exceptions, not the rule. Even last year - which was NOT an 82 game season, there was still some visible correlation between score-venue adjusted CF% and being in the playoffs. The teams in the cup final were respectively 6th and 7th in regular season CF% too:
The two teams that probably deserved to make the playoffs, but didn't, were Calgary and Dallas.
Calgary's CF% is misleading - it was a lot lower under Ward and a lot higher under Sutter. They probably ran out of time, but I also think Sutter did some bizarre things like overplaying Nesrerov, injured Monahan, and Ritchie, and underutilizing Bennett and Kylington.
Dallas lost the beginning of their season to Covid, and that probably knocked them out of their spot.
St. Louis making it is bizarre and might be a result of the truncated season (and Dallas' covid situation). I imagine over an 82 game season, Dallas overtakes them.
Winnipeg probably didn't deserve to be in either, but IIRC Hellebuyck had an outstanding year for them. He essentially stole Calgary's spot in the playoff mix.
And the other teams are all pretty closely bunched towards the middle. Thr Islanders had one of the highest PDOs in the league, whereas the Devils were remarkably average.
Philadelphia also had some horrible goaltending from Hart, which is evident in their PDO.
The team which probably should have won the Cup, Colorado, had some other issues (Kadri suspension, IIRC) but also lost to the team with the second-highest CF rate.