Quote:
Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus
It's far to early to make that assessment for countries like Australia and New Zealand, or any country for that matter. The tourism industry so heavily drives both of these countries that they will be feeling the effects of Covid-19 and the subsequent Covid zero policies, harsh border closures for years, if not decades.
If your metric is simply suppressing cases and deaths, that is one thing, but in terms of overall benefit (which would include caseload/death rates, the economy, mental health of the general population), you're going to have to look at this once the dust completely settles around the world in 4-5 years.
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How do you believe a shallower recession and better recovery over the last 2 years will more negatively impact them in five years?
EDIT: And on that point, but more specifically, do you believe the mental health impacts of economic expansion, low death rate, and an unemployment rate that rose by less than 2% will somehow turn out to be worse than extended recession, much higher death rates, and an unemployment rate that rose nearly 10%?
There are certain things we can wait and see about. I don't think it's correct regarding some of what you listed, and I don't believe it's going to take decades to find out. Especially, as I stated, there are phases to this thing we can separate out. We know New Zealand's approach was economically beneficial compared to many, many others. We know it protected the population physically (and mentally, if your choice is between lockdowns and seeing those around you die). We know it this now. What happens over the next year might mean a different situation a year from now, and 4-5 years down the line will account for all of it. But taking 5 years of during and (hopefully) post-pandemic and trying to judge the entire thing is going to be impossible. To actually learn anything from it, we need to look at it from a more micro level than that.