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Originally Posted by Manhattanboy
Very positive news on J&J single dose vaccine (although the press release is from the company), but not great news on the Pfizer vaccine, the research suggesting that unless the population gets their third booster shot immunity could essentially be negated over time, resulting in recurring waves.
https://www.jnj.com/positive-new-dat...ty-of-response
https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/06/healt...ity/index.html
“ Pfizer's immunity effectiveness declines steadily, hovering at around 20% after the four-month mark, per the researchers.
"These findings suggest that a large proportion of the vaccinated population could lose its protection against infection in the coming months, perhaps increasing the potential for new epidemic waves," wrote the report.” |
I would take those (both good and bad) with a big grain of salt. J&J's own data (which was a tiny sample of 8 people) shows waning antibodies (dropping by about half from their peak at 2.5 months to 8 months), and they weren't all that high to begin with. And real-world data shows that vaccine only having about 80% efficacy against hospitalization and death. There's a reason they're applying to have their booster approved.
As for Pfizer, protection clearly wanes over time, but 20% after 4 months is contrary to basically every bit of real-world evidence. If that were remotely accurate, we would be seeing huge amounts of breakthrough infections everywhere, but we're not. In fact, Italy just came out and estimated that effectiveness for mRNA vaccines for people without comorbidities was still 89% after 7 months:
Quote:
The report led by ISS and the health ministry examined data up to Aug. 29 from more than 29 million people who had received two doses of an mRNA vaccine such as those produced by Pfizer and Moderna.
It said that in the general population, effectiveness against infection after seven months remained at 89%, while against hospitalisation and death, this time six months after the second dose, it remained at 96% and 99% respectively.
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https://www.reuters.com/business/hea...rce=reddit.com
The answer is probably somewhere in the middle, but further doses are going to be a reality for all vaccines if we want to maintain protection against infection. It's really just a matter of when that needs to happen.