[united]

Personally, I am higher on the Flames than Dom is, and the general market is, mostly due to the Sutter effect. I have posted before about how I think Darryl is one of the best coaches of all-time, and I truly believe that. The Flames are likely to encounter some early season struggles as the team picks up where it left off in becoming tactically fluid in a drastically different system than they have played previously, but once they get going (15-25 games in) I think they will go on a run. Sure, it won't be the most entertaining product for those who long for high-scoring hockey, but it is sure effective when deployed by a tactical mastermind like Sutter.

Here's hoping Markstrom's poor season was indeed caused by his injury as those who aren't afraid to use the smallest of sample sizes quickly point to. I am a bit more skeptical as everything I have read or have worked on myself points to 2,000+ shot sample sizes being the minimum point of forward-looking reliability and that is a sample that predicts near-average goaltending from Markstrom. That said, even with a sufficient sample I have little confidence in my ability, or anyone's ability, to project goaltender performance without large error bars so despite that track record that says "average", maybe the Flames get top-10 - or better - goaltending.

One note on Vladar is Dom's model only uses NHL performance of which Vladar has just 130 minutes of meaning heavy regression to his mean (replacement level?). Using Vladar's AHL experience - which is 15 times larger than his NHL sample - and applying a goaltender NHL-AHL equivalency constant, I get him being just under league average which is more optimistic than Dom's projection.

Not that anyone who has watched Gudbranson needs a model to tell them this, but him playing at all is a blackhole for the Flames. How he got that contract, or any contract other than league minimum, is the largest mystery since the epic alleged Jeff Finger mix-up. Wizardly work by his agent in a position of little perceivable leverage.

Completely agree with Dom on the Flames' centre depth. I have been a huge supporter of Lindholm, and had been recommending the Flames move him to centre for what seemed like an eternity before they finally caved and tried it out to great effect (surprising no one), but being a contender without a top ten two-way centre is very very difficult and I'm afraid as much as I love Lindholm, I don't have him in that tier due to his sub-par neutral zone and transition play (superb all other areas). Monahan has been exhausted at this point but the injury prone centre plays more of a winger's game and despite analytically inclined fans sounding warning alarms about Monahan's one-dimensional skillset and reliance on Gaudreau - and how difficult it is to contend with that type of player as your #1C - since the 2018 off-season, Treliving went all-in on him as #1C in a huge ill-advised gamble - finally they seem to have evaluated him properly which should result in more sheltered minutes fit for his ability. Backlund is a Flames legend and has been so under-appreciated in his career but age comes for everyone so a natural decline is expected, but when and at what speed remains to be determined. In the end, Treliving's casual approach to the importance of the centre ice position could be his ultimate downfall should the Flames falter this season. I remember the excitement when he was first hired until the first season ticket holder event I attended where he laid out his approach to roster construction: Build through defence, then goaltending, then "forwards." I vividly remember taking note of not only his order, but also his use of "forwards" as a whole, but leaving the benefit of the doubt. Unfortunately I heard him repeat essentially the same message a few times the first couple years which really discouraged me, and which is why I have been cautiously warning he isn't the person for the job we hoped for for around half a decade now given his disregard for the premier position in hockey - a fatal flaw. Here we are entering another season in our contention window weak in the most important position in the league which seems to be our GMs biggest blind spot, and the fanbase as a whole seems to have shifted toward him not being the right person to lead the franchise to glory. Let's hope the centre-by-committee approach works for us as it has for pretty much one other team in the past 20 years: Vegas, who leaned on an excellent mobile defensive group to help float their centres - something the Flames no longer have.

I personally think the Flames finish around 96 points but fall short of contention as they just don't have the two-way firepower down the middle of the rink to hang with the heavyweights. Markstrom can really make (or break) the season for the Flames, too: A Vezina-caliber output from him and the Flames can make an Islanders-style playoffs run. I have a fair bit of cash on the Flames' regular season points over which is kind of terrifying but I think it offers tremendous expected value so couldn't not pull the trigger. Boy is it ever setting up to be a very difficult trade deadline and potentially off-season should the Flames perform as expected (mid- to low-range playoff team) but not have Gaudreau's contract sealed by the end of February.