It's only the 3rd inning, so I am not counting any chickens yet, however, if this holds up, the chance of a 4-way tie is still in place.
Another Yankee loss (50%)
Boston goes 1 and 1 (50% - not factoring QoC)
Jays win 2 (25%)
Mariners win 2 (25%)
1.56% chance (using random outcomes)
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