[united]

This is where my long-shot tier starts (followed by the see ya tier, sponsored by Jim Cummins?).

Toss-up between the two players who were selected five picks apart in Jack Beck and Lucas Ciona, but ultimately settled on Lucas Ciona as I feel he will be badly underrated due to the circumstances he plays in. This is the stage where I shift noticeably from ceiling to probability of playing at all and while Beck has the higher ceiling, Ciona is more likely to play. Both longshots at this stage, though.

Considered
Jack Beck
Lucas Ciona
Ilya Nikolayev
Walker Duehr
Lucas Feuk

Jack Beck
Undersized winger who missed a critical development year. Not much to go on as a result but can't discount the missed year - like with Rory Kerins. Sounds like he can fly around the ice.

Lucas Ciona
Big frame and not afraid to use it to crash and bang and create turnovers in the offensive zone. Skating needs some work obviously but still saw some PK deployment. Will be underrated due to sub-5% shooting impacting boxcars though not saying he doesn't project as a grinder. In his 76-game WHL career, the rebuilding Thunderbirds have broken even with him on the ice but were -23 with him off which may surprise. Organic Flames-guided growth of his own plus his rebuilding team's yearly improvement could see him jump next season. Here's hoping he does.

Ilya Nikolayev
What an odd way to split time: played part of the season on the powerhouse Loko team who led the MHL in both wins and goals for, while also playing part of the season on the lowly Buran squad that finished with the second fewest wins in the VHL. Known as an all-around two-way centre but tough to gauge with those circumstances. Looking forward to seeing him in North America this season. In my opinion his game is better suited to smaller ice.

Walker Duehr
The former teammate of Connor Mackey is an absolute beast of a right-shot power forward who isn't a liability defensively and hits like a battering ram. Players in his mold often get looks in the 4W spots so he could see some NHL time in 2022-23 should he not look out of place in his first season as a pro in the AHL, which is more promising than most players at this point of the exercise.

Lucas Feuk
Likely completely written off by many due to levelling down, Lucas Feuk still holds a glimmer of hope in my eyes. The scrappy shoot-first winger probably doesn't have the defensive game to make it, but he is arguably the most gifted goal scorer left at this point (not that that is saying much) and his "grit" shows well to people who could give him a chance.


Not Considered
Colton Poolman - He will be 26 in December, has no notable strengths, and has a lineup ahead of him at LD. All the best.
Carl-Johan Lerby - Unlikely to return from Europe. Was worth a shot.
Justin Kirkland - By all accounts a good mid-age presence for the farm but that's it.
Alex Yelesin - Unlikely to return from Europe. Was worth a shot.
Eetu Tuulola - I don't think he's ever going to skate well enough to make it.
Luke Philp - Feel-good story but unlikely to make it. Should have a good career in other leagues, though. Derek Ryan is one of the largest outliers of the past 20 years - cheer for them but don't bet on them.
Josh Nodler - Hated this pick at the time. Jim Cummins liked him though. Soft as baby ____.
Demetrios Koumontzis - A wasted pick on this Jim Cummins high school special. Hopefully the winger will finally hit the five-goal mark for the first time in his college career as a senior.
Jake Boltmann - Could very well be Patrick Sieloff in disguise. Another Jim Cummins high school spot. Hopefully he shows some ability to transition the puck and actually gets on the scoresheet this season after getting blanked in all 19+6 games last.
Mitchell Mattson - I swear I'm not a broken record. Jim Cummins fought for this high school standout and the Flames wasted a draft pick on him for some reason. Took the big forward until his third year of college to score a goal and hey he scored two!