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Originally Posted by SuperMatt18
Funny part is they actually broke through on what was the downswing of that supposed run.
12-13: 2nd in Central - Lost in First Round
13-14: 2nd in Central - Lost in First Round
14-15: 1st in Cetnral - Lost in First Round
15-16: 2nd in Central - Lost in Conference Finals
16-17: 3rd in Central - Lost in Second Round
17-18: 5th in Central - Missed Playoffs
18-19: 3rd in Central - Won Cup
19-20: 1st in Central - Lost in First Round
20-21: 4th in West - Lost in First Round
There were a lot of first round losses in the mix for the Blues too...
I think the biggest misconception people have is that a teams progression is linear, and that a team is always going to develop and get better in a straight line.
And really in the NHL that just isn't true, teams grow and develop in cycles. Washington, Tampa, Pittsburgh, LA, none of those teams had linear progression leading up to their cup wins.
They would have good seasons, then have a step back and have a bad season, then have a couple good seasons. And I think people also think building a winner comes quickly...when really it doesn't and really the only team that had that happen were Chicago and Pittsburgh (first cup in 08-09) in the last 20 years.
Washington, Tampa, LA, St.Louis all took years to get to the point where they won the cup.
Over the last three seasons as a whole the Flames have the 4th best record in the Western Conference. Sure that's mostly on the back of a strong 18-19, but that's a lot better performance over time than a lot of people on here would have you believe. In that same time frame they are 3rd in the conference in Corsi For, 3rd in xGF% behind only Colorado and Vegas. Really what has held them back is that they are 12th in the conference in save percentage over that 3 year time period.
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You've hit the nail on the head. Every year, 75% of the teams don't make it past the first round of the playoffs. Only a handful of those are true lottery teams. With so few teams making it past the first round, there is a high degree of randomness in which teams advance in the playoffs (just look at TBL, from being swept in the 1st round one year to winning the Cup the next). I was at game 2 of the Flames vs. the Avs in 2019, and we were a bounce, a call, or (especially) a timely save away from taking a decisive lead in that series. The Flames came out fast and confident, and dominated parts of that game, but after the overtime loss, you could just see the team's confidence deflate, and they were never the same the rest of the series. At the same time, MacKinnon's confidence soared, and he got in the heads of the Flames. I still think that if the Flames had won that game, they would have won the series, and could have made it all the way to the finals.